According to SHINDEV Research, following the rapid initiation of green hydrogen projects in 2023, China is expected to see a concentrated wave of project construction in 2024, marking a critical acceleration phase for the hydrogen energy industry. With electrolyzer tender volumes expanding rapidly, upstream hydrogen production equipment demand being released ahead of the curve, and continued cost reductions in solar PV and energy storage, the green hydrogen sector is transitioning from policy-driven development toward large-scale deployment and early-stage commercialization.
Industry statistics show that from January to December 2023, a total of 19 green hydrogen projects in China publicly tendered electrolyzers, with a combined tender volume of 1,882 MW—nearly 2 GW—representing a year-on-year doubling. According to GF Securities, considering national targets to produce 100,000–200,000 tons of green hydrogen annually by 2025 and local plans totaling up to 1 million tons of capacity, 2024 is expected to witness a wave of project construction. Under optimistic assumptions, domestic electrolyzer tender volumes could double again to 4 GW in 2024.
Zhu Keli, Executive Council Member of the China Information Association and Founding President of the China Institute of New Economy, noted that the doubling of electrolyzer tenders in 2023 marks a new starting point for the hydrogen industry. Supported by both declining costs across wind, solar, storage, and hydrogen equipment, as well as policy incentives, green hydrogen is gaining strong momentum.
Unlike previous development phases that emphasized downstream fuel cell demonstrations, China’s hydrogen industry has shifted its focus since 2023 toward upstream green hydrogen production, directly stimulating demand for core equipment such as electrolyzers.
In August 2023, China’s largest solar-powered hydrogen demonstration project achieved full-scale operation in Kuqa, Xinjiang, signaling the start of industrial-scale green hydrogen deployment. Data indicate that during 2023, numerous green hydrogen projects were approved, with planned capacity exceeding 4.5 million tons. Meanwhile, multiple regions introduced production subsidies, providing institutional support for early-stage hydrogen production and accelerating upstream equipment growth.
GF Securities expects that as project approvals translate into execution, large-scale equipment tenders will follow. Demand for hydrogen production equipment—particularly electrolyzers, power supply systems, and hydrogen storage tanks—is expected to surge, with electrolyzers being the earliest beneficiaries.
The key constraint to large-scale green hydrogen adoption remains economic viability. While major chemical and energy enterprises are actively planning projects, most operational demonstration projects have yet to achieve mature commercial models.
CITIC Securities estimates that under wind-solar hybrid power station models, green hydrogen production costs could fall below RMB 25/kg in 2024, enabling preliminary economic feasibility in selected application scenarios. Industry experts also highlight that continued technological maturation and scaling will further reduce costs.
Notably, sustained cost reductions in solar PV and energy storage since 2023 have begun to reveal regional green hydrogen grid parity. GF Securities suggests that “solar-storage-hydrogen parity” could become a key inflection point for the hydrogen industry, as green hydrogen costs continue to converge toward full parity.
Green hydrogen parity is being accelerated through cross-regional hydrogen transport and infrastructure development. Initiatives such as “West-to-East Hydrogen Transmission” are under exploration, particularly in regions like Inner Mongolia, where green hydrogen is being positioned as a carrier for renewable energy transmission. Advances in liquid hydrogen transport standards and technologies are further enhancing feasibility.
At the same time, hydrogen infrastructure is scaling rapidly. According to Sinopec’s medium- to long-term strategy, the company plans to establish hydrogen refueling capacity of approximately 120,000 tons per year by 2025, corresponding to the construction of over 650 hydrogen refueling stations nationwide.
This expansion also creates opportunities for upstream carbon fiber materials. Industry participants note that rising demand for hydrogen storage cylinders will significantly increase carbon fiber consumption, potentially pushing annual demand in this segment to the 100,000-ton level within the next few years.
On the application side, fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have entered a growth phase since 2023. With regional policy details and subsidies being implemented, industry consensus suggests that 2024 will mark an acceleration period for hydrogen and fuel cell commercialization.
SHINDEV Research believes that as low-cost hydrogen supply expands and storage and transportation costs decline, the economic competitiveness of hydrogen in transportation will improve significantly. Moreover, industrial, power generation, and heating sectors are showing growing interest, paving the way for diversified hydrogen applications.
Overall, 2024 is expected to be a pivotal year in which China’s green hydrogen projects transition from demonstration-driven development to scale-driven expansion. Supported by policy incentives, technological advancement, and cost reductions, upstream hydrogen production equipment is scaling first, infrastructure and logistics are advancing in parallel, and downstream applications are gradually opening up. As green hydrogen parity becomes increasingly visible, hydrogen energy is set to play an increasingly strategic role in China’s energy transition.
