Global financial markets have experienced significant fluctuations recently, with technology stocks leading the decline, Asian stock markets generally under pressure, and commodities and crypto-assets pulling back simultaneously, reflecting that the market is undergoing a systemic repricing process driven by "expectation revisions."

1. The nature of the correction of technology stocks: not a performance issue, but an anxiety about “capital efficiency”

The latest financial report of technology giants represented by Alphabet shows that the fundamentals of its main business are still solid, but the market reaction has been extremely violent. The core reasons are:

·AI investment has entered the "asset-heavy stage", and Alphabet expects capital expenditures to reach US$175-185 billion in 2025, significantly higher than market expectations.

This means:

·AI has shifted from a "highly imaginative software story" to a "high capital consumption infrastructure race", with the investment return cycle significantly lengthened and short-term free cash flow under pressure;

·The market is re-examining the valuation anchor of AI. In the current high interest rate environment, the capital market's tolerance for "forward earnings" has significantly decreased. Any sharp expansion of capital expenditures will be regarded as a direct impact on the valuation model;

·AMD’s plunge after its financial report further strengthened this logic: Even if it is in the core AI industry chain, as long as the growth pace cannot continue to exceed expectations, it will be difficult to support high valuations.

SHINDEV’s point of view:

This round of adjustment in technology stocks is more like a correction in valuation and capital structure than the end of the technology cycle. The long-term logic of AI has not changed, but the “indifferent premium” phase has ended.

2. The characteristics of capital rotation are obvious: shifting from “growth narrative” to “defense and cash flow”

Market behavior shows a clear shift in risk appetite, with investors moving away from large-cap tech stocks and toward:

·Defensive consumption (such as Wal-Mart) and cash flow stabilizing sectors such as medical care, utilities, and real estate;

·In the Asian market, finance and real estate are relatively resistant to decline, and the technology-weighted market is under obvious pressure;

·This suggests that funds are repricing the "uncertainty premium" rather than simply fleeing the stock market.

3. The collapse of silver and highly leveraged assets: the "amplifier" of liquidity pressure

Silver's single-day plunge of 15% is not a sudden change in fundamentals, but typical:

·Passive deleveraging of high leverage + high volatility assets during risk contraction cycles;

·The early increase was too large and it became the "priority selling target" during liquidity recovery;

·The simultaneous correction of gold also shows that in the short term, the market needs cash liquidity more than safe-haven asset allocation.

SHINDEV reminds:

When precious metals and risk assets fall at the same time, it often means that the market is under liquidity pressure rather than a stage driven by a single risk event.

4. Macro level: Interest rates and geopolitical factors are difficult to provide support in the short term.

·U.S. non-farm payroll data is delayed and macro guidance is missing in the short term;

·The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to keep interest rates unchanged and extend the policy "wait-and-see period";

·Oil prices fell in anticipation of US-Iran negotiations, but not enough to change the path of inflation;

Overall, the macro environment has not provided new upward catalysts for risk assets.

5. SHINDEV’s summary judgment: This is a “healthy but uncomfortable” market adjustment

From an institutional perspective, we believe:

The current fluctuations are structural adjustments rather than systemic crises. AI is still the long-term main line, but the market will pay more attention to return on capital (ROIC), free cash flow quality and commercialization path. The market is likely to remain highly volatile in the short term, and investors need to reduce leverage and improve asset quality requirements.

SHINDEV’s strategic suggestions (principle):

·Reduce concentrated exposure to a single highly valued theme；

·Focus on defensive and dividend assets with stable cash flow and reasonable valuations；

·Preserve liquidity for the next round of technological structural opportunities.