(External Research Press Release | SHINDEV Research Team)
As the photovoltaic (PV) industry enters a new phase where the “efficiency race” and the “levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) race” run in parallel, cell technology iteration has become one of the most critical variables across the value chain. The SHINDEV Research Team believes that the industry is now at a pivotal turning point from P-type to N-type technologies: PERC mass-production efficiency is approaching its practical ceiling, leaving limited headroom for further improvement; in contrast, N-type high-efficiency cells outperform PERC in both current efficiency and long-term upside, making N-type the most deterministic direction for the next cycle.
Within N-type routes, TOPCon is scaling faster in the near term thanks to process compatibility and more favorable capex economics—winning on “capacity and penetration.” Meanwhile, HJT (heterojunction) is well positioned to capture higher long-term value due to its superior electrical fundamentals, a clearer cost-reduction roadmap, and stronger structural compatibility with perovskite-based tandems—potentially securing a premium position in the next technology cycle.
The shift from P-type to N-type is the industry’s main trend: N-type cells clearly outperform PERC in conversion efficiency, degradation, bifaciality, and future improvement headroom.
HJT stands out among third-generation mainstream routes: it features higher open-circuit voltage, a lower temperature coefficient, no LID/PID effects, a symmetric structure that supports thinner wafers, and low-temperature processes with lower energy consumption—making it a key “future solution.”
HJT industrialization is entering a “cost-down re-validation” stage: silver-coated copper, 0BB, copper plating, low-indium/de-indium TCO targets, equipment localization, microcrystalline upgrades, and packaging material iteration are accelerating cost declines—reviving the path to large-scale adoption.
Tandems define the next ceiling: in terms of structural fit and efficiency upside, perovskite-HJT tandems are more favorable and can potentially evolve toward 30%+ efficiencies.
Investment angle: focus on early-stage equity opportunities along the HJT value chain, especially around capacity expansion inflection points and cost-down milestones.
PV cells are the fundamental unit of PV systems and the key determinant of conversion efficiency and energy yield. They are also the part of the mainstream PV chain with the most significant technology evolution and the greatest variability.
In 2023, China’s PV supply chain continued to expand rapidly across major segments. Industry statistics indicate strong output growth across polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. Globally, China remains the core production hub for cells and modules, reinforcing scale advantages and supply capabilities.
From a technology standpoint, crystalline silicon remains dominant. Monocrystalline silicon cells can be broadly categorized into P-type and N-type based on dopants. N-type technologies primarily include TOPCon, HJT, and BC. As PERC approaches its efficiency ceiling, the industry is clearly moving into a “post-PERC” era where N-type becomes the mainstream trajectory.
PERC has led the market for years thanks to strong cost-performance, but its mass-production efficiency is nearing the practical limit, making further meaningful gains increasingly difficult. SHINDEV believes N-type technologies offer superior efficiency and long-term headroom, while also delivering advantages in degradation and bifacial performance—driving an accelerated transition from P-type to N-type.
TOPCon: strong process compatibility and faster scaling, with partial upgrade pathways from PERC lines;
HJT: shorter process flow, low-temperature manufacturing, and symmetric bifacial structure, but higher requirements on new lines and materials;
BC: no front-side shading and strong efficiency potential; as a platform technology, BC may combine with TOPCon/HJT in future iterations.
The PV industry never stops competing on “higher efficiency” and “lower LCOE.” New technologies may command a temporary premium early on, but whether that premium is sustainable ultimately depends on the speed of cost decline and the ability to scale supply.
TOPCon can leverage parts of the existing PERC manufacturing base and generally requires lower incremental capex, enabling rapid expansion and faster supply scaling in the near term.
SHINDEV highlights HJT’s structural advantages within N-type routes:
higher open-circuit voltage and lower temperature coefficient;
lower degradation and better long-term stability;
low-temperature processes with lower energy consumption;
symmetric bifacial structure with stronger bifacial upside;
no LID/PID;
simplified process flow that can support yield improvement and manufacturing efficiency.
In the short run, HJT faces economic challenges due to new line requirements and higher costs for paste, targets, and certain equipment. Over the long run, however, HJT has a clearer cost-down pathway and better compatibility with tandem architectures—offering a higher ceiling and stronger extensibility.
Historically, market debates around HJT centered on “high cost and slow industrialization.” SHINDEV believes that, as incremental breakthroughs emerge across metallization, targets, equipment, microcrystalline upgrades, and packaging materials, HJT is entering a more verifiable cost-down phase, bringing back a clearer path to large-scale rollout.
Metallization: silver-coated copper and 0BB are advancing; copper plating offers both cost and efficiency upside;
Targets and equipment: low-indium / de-indium routes strengthen supply-chain security; localization continues to reduce capex;
Microcrystalline upgrades: replacing amorphous layers with microcrystalline options can improve current and reduce contact resistance;
Packaging materials: UV-conversion films and better edge-sealing improve reliability and can deliver yield gains, lowering system-level LCOE.
Tandems are a key variable that will define the next efficiency ceiling. Compared with TOPCon, HJT is structurally better suited for perovskite tandems: the HJT surface naturally uses TCO, simplifying integration. TOPCon tandems may require additional handling of insulating layers and can lose part of their intrinsic current advantage. Overall, perovskite-HJT tandems offer a more favorable combination of theoretical upside and engineering compatibility.
Every major technology shift in PV has historically reshaped industry leadership. In the post-PERC era, competition among TOPCon, HJT, BC, and tandem technologies is intensifying, and market participants should remain rational about premium dynamics and the pace of commercialization.
SHINDEV believes HJT’s high efficiency, high yield, and strong reliability are already widely recognized, while its main weakness—high cost—is being systematically addressed. As multiple cost-down levers continue to land, HJT may enter an acceleration phase. We suggest paying close attention to high-barrier segments with proven mass-production and delivery capabilities, as well as early-stage equity opportunities across the HJT value chain.
