On July 21 (local time), U.S. President Joe Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This decision is expected to significantly reshape the U.S. domestic political landscape and is widely regarded by markets as a key variable with far-reaching implications for the global economy and financial system. As a result, global capital markets, international trade conditions, and multinational corporate strategies are entering a new phase of uncertainty and reassessment.
At this critical juncture, Fengkou Finance launched a special feature titled “Biden’s Exit”, bringing together insights from industry experts and economists to analyze the economic logic behind the political shift and to assess its potential impact on global financial markets, international trade frameworks, and corporate globalization strategies—offering forward-looking perspectives on future global economic trends.
Amid mounting pressure within the Democratic Party, President Biden announced on July 21 that he would withdraw from the presidential race and expressed his support for Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. This development has introduced significant uncertainty into the 2024 U.S. election and added new complexity to global financial market risk pricing.
The SHINDEV Research Institute notes that U.S. presidential elections have historically been major “risk events” for global financial markets. Following Biden’s withdrawal, differences in policy positions among candidates—particularly regarding fiscal policy, monetary policy, energy transition, and technology regulation—are expected to directly influence market expectations. Investors worldwide are closely monitoring political developments to evaluate their potential impact on market volatility and global asset allocation.
From an international trade perspective, Biden’s withdrawal has not only altered the electoral process but has also renewed market attention on the future direction of U.S. trade policy. As the world’s largest economy, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election often serves as a critical determinant of global trade conditions.
According to the SHINDEV Research Institute, a potential shift in U.S. leadership could lead to significant changes in trade policy, increasing the risk of renewed trade frictions. Former President Donald Trump has previously stated that, if re-elected, he would impose substantially higher tariffs on imported goods, with tariffs on Chinese products potentially reaching up to 60%. Against this backdrop, changes in the U.S. electoral landscape may have profound implications for China–U.S. trade relations and the global multilateral trading system.
The Institute advises Chinese export-oriented enterprises to proactively assess policy risks by diversifying market exposure, enhancing product irreplaceability, and optimizing supply chain structures to better withstand potential trade barriers and rising costs.
At the corporate level—particularly within the new energy vehicle and clean energy sectors—changes in U.S. political direction are expected to have more immediate and tangible impacts.
Duan Zhiqiang, President of the SHINDEV Research Institute, noted that during the Biden administration, significant efforts were made to promote clean energy transition and carbon reduction, supported by multiple policies and legislative initiatives favoring the new energy vehicle industry. In contrast, Donald Trump’s policy stance differs markedly, with a stronger emphasis on traditional energy sources and domestic manufacturing protection.
Recently, at the U.S. Republican National Convention, Trump reiterated his intention to overturn a series of automotive and new energy policies enacted under the Biden administration and proposed imposing additional tariffs on foreign automobiles, including those from China, in an effort to “revitalize the U.S. automotive industry.” Under such policy expectations, Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers may face increased pressure to adjust their overseas investment strategies and global expansion plans.
The SHINDEV Research Institute believes that Chinese new energy enterprises should adopt a medium- to long-term perspective by strengthening overseas compliance capabilities, optimizing global production and market, and enhancing core competitiveness through continuous technological innovation and brand upgrading to better navigate policy uncertainties.
The SHINDEV Research Institute concludes that President Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 U.S. presidential race is not only a major political event in the United States, but also a potential inflection point with significant implications for global economic operations and industrial structures. In an era of deep interconnection between politics, economics, and industry, enterprises and investors must place greater emphasis on macro-political variables and adopt a forward-looking approach when assessing future global economic trends.
