After a period of rapid expansion followed by a sharp cyclical correction, polysilicon prices have recently shown clear signs of stabilization. According to data from PvinfoLink, the average price of dense polysilicon this week stands at approximately RMB 64 per kilogram, remaining flat week-on-week.
SHINDEV Research Institute believes that current prices are now close to industry cost levels, leaving limited downside risk. Looking ahead, polysilicon pricing is expected to exhibit structural differentiation, driven by technological evolution and shifting demand patterns.
Multiple market analysts interviewed by Securities Daily indicated that polysilicon prices have effectively entered a cyclical bottom range. As photovoltaic technologies continue to upgrade and supply-demand dynamics improve, the market is expected to diverge in the second half of the year, with N-type polysilicon likely to outperform P-type products.
According to SHINDEV Research, the recent decline in polysilicon prices was primarily driven by a short-term improvement in supply-demand balance and proactive inventory clearance by certain producers. As prices approach cost thresholds, higher-cost and newly established manufacturers have been forced to suspend or scale back production, effectively accelerating industry consolidation.
Industry estimates suggest that the average full production cost for polysilicon is approximately RMB 60,000 per metric ton. Leading manufacturers with scale and cost advantages are still able to maintain profitability, while smaller players face increasing operational pressure. This dynamic is gradually reshaping the competitive landscape of the upstream photovoltaic sector.
As the photovoltaic industry accelerates its transition toward next-generation technologies such as TOPCon, demand for N-type polysilicon continues to rise. Analysts note that while additional N-type capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year, stringent requirements related to product quality and process stability may limit short-term supply flexibility.
SHINDEV Research expects polysilicon prices to fluctuate primarily within the RMB 60–70 per kilogram range in the second half of the year. Within this range, N-type polysilicon is likely to demonstrate stronger price resilience compared with P-type materials, reflecting its strategic importance in advanced cell technologies.
With polysilicon prices stabilizing at historically low levels, market expectations regarding the overall profitability of the photovoltaic value chain have improved. SHINDEV Research believes that excess profits previously concentrated in upstream raw material segments will increasingly migrate downstream, supporting broader industry recovery.
Lower raw material costs are expected to drive further reductions in module prices, stimulating downstream photovoltaic power plant investment and installation demand. This trend is likely to improve shipment volumes across wafers, solar cells, and modules, contributing to a healthier and more balanced industry structure.
SHINDEV Research Institute provides the following profitability outlook for the second half of the year:
Polysilicon: Margins normalize, with leading producers maintaining relative stability
Wafers: Profitability remains limited amid intense competition
Solar cells: Gross margins are expected to recover to approximately 14–15%
Modules: Gross margins are likely to stabilize around 10%
Under these conditions, vertically integrated photovoltaic companies are increasingly advantaged. By spanning multiple segments of the value chain, integrated players are better positioned to absorb price volatility, smooth margin fluctuations, and sustain long-term profitability.
SHINDEV Research Institute concludes that polysilicon prices have reached a cyclical bottom, with limited downside risk in the near term. Supported by technological upgrades, recovering demand, and profit redistribution along the value chain, the photovoltaic industry is expected to gradually emerge from its downturn in the second half of the year.
Against the backdrop of global decarbonization and the accelerating energy transition, the long-term growth fundamentals of the photovoltaic sector remain intact. Going forward, industry consolidation, technological differentiation, and vertically integrated strategies are set to define the next phase of competition and value creation.
