The SHINDEV research team observed that on March 1, hydrogen-related stocks in China’s A-share market continued to strengthen, with multiple names posting significant gains. Xin Dongli surged by 20% intraday, while several others hit daily limits, reflecting a notable rise in investor attention toward the hydrogen sector.
On the policy front, on February 29, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with six other government agencies, released the Guidelines on Accelerating the Green Transformation of the Manufacturing Sector. The document emphasizes forward-looking deployment of future green and low-carbon industries, calling for strategic development of hydrogen energy, energy storage, bio-manufacturing, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in alignment with China’s “dual-carbon” goals. At the same time, multiple local governments have recently introduced supportive policies, creating sustained policy momentum.
According to SHINDEV, under the combined influence of policy support, technological progress, and improving industrial foundations, 2024 is likely to mark a phase of meaningful breakthroughs for the hydrogen industry.
In recent weeks, a series of hydrogen-related policy measures have been rolled out across various regions, drawing strong market attention.
Public information shows that, as part of the “Hydrogen Enters Thousands of Households” demonstration initiative, local governments are advancing hydrogen applications across transportation and energy scenarios. Some regions have introduced temporary toll exemptions for qualified hydrogen-powered vehicles, encouraging cross-regional hydrogen mobility.
Meanwhile, industrial planning at the local level continues to intensify. Nanhai District of Foshan City recently announced a roadmap to build a RMB 100-billion hydrogen and ammonia–hydrogen equipment manufacturing cluster, targeting large-scale industrial output and a growing number of qualified enterprises by 2030.
In addition, meaningful progress has been made on the hydrogen production front. Industry research indicates that easing restrictions on hydrogen production outside chemical industrial parks, combined with the use of off-peak electricity pricing, could significantly reduce hydrogen production costs—potentially approaching the upper cost range of grey hydrogen and improving the economics of large-scale deployment.
SHINDEV also noted that recent transportation-sector pilot initiatives have placed strong emphasis on hydrogen fuel cell R&D and hydrogen-based transportation platforms, underscoring a broader push to accelerate coordinated development across the hydrogen value chain.
As a key pathway for renewable energy consumption, hydrogen—owing to its clean and efficient characteristics—is gaining increasing support from local governments. Statistics show that more than 20 provincial and municipal governments in China have included hydrogen development plans in their 2024 policy agendas, with further supportive measures widely expected.
Industry analysts believe that as the policy environment continues to improve, restrictions on hydrogen production and transportation will gradually ease. Under multiple favorable conditions, hydrogen infrastructure development is expected to accelerate, including the expansion of dedicated hydrogen pipelines and hydrogen-blended natural gas networks. At the same time, hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks—offering long driving range, low emissions, and improving economics—are likely to see faster commercialization.
Driven by policy support, technological advancements, and cost reductions, China’s hydrogen industry is gaining momentum, though investment discipline remains essential.
Cost remains the key constraint for green hydrogen adoption. Industry estimates suggest that green hydrogen costs are largely driven by production and storage/transportation expenses, with electrolyzer cost and efficiency playing a decisive role.
SHINDEV believes that as renewable power costs decline and economies of scale in hydrogen equipment manufacturing take effect, green hydrogen costs will continue to fall. In particular, the commercialization pathway for integrated solar–storage–hydrogen solutions is becoming increasingly clear.
From a technology standpoint, alkaline water electrolysis currently offers advantages in both cost and maturity, with proven commercial viability. It is expected to become a key near-term technology route for green hydrogen development. Further improvements in electrolyzer efficiency and power–hydrogen coupling are likely to drive additional cost reductions.
SHINDEV notes that the hydrogen value chain remains in an exploratory phase, characterized by diverse technological pathways and evolving application scenarios—especially in storage and transportation, where further breakthroughs are required. Nevertheless, supported by policy, market demand, and capital, the hydrogen industry retains the potential to outperform expectations.
Although capital inflows into the hydrogen sector remain relatively limited amid broader market conditions, upstream localization of key materials, improving technological capabilities, and stronger engineering expertise provide a solid foundation for sustained growth.
Looking ahead, SHINDEV emphasizes that continued policy certainty, declining cost curves, and expanding applications will require long-term capital commitment and patience to enable hydrogen energy to transition from pilot projects to large-scale, commercially viable deployment.
