Since 2026, the global precious metals market has entered a stage of extreme volatility and trend acceleration. Spot gold exceeded US$5,100 per ounce, setting new historical records in a row, while silver, platinum, and palladium simultaneously hit new highs. This is not driven by a single event, but the result of the superposition of multiple structural forces.

1. Gold’s rising logic has undergone a qualitative change: from “safe haven asset” to “currency substitution”

Different from the linear logic of "rising risk - buy gold" in the traditional cycle, this round of gold rise shows deeper changes:

1. Geopolitical risks have become long-term and institutionalized. Policy uncertainty between the United States and its major trading partners has increased significantly. Tariffs, sanctions, and the politicization of financial instruments are eroding global trust in the existing financial order.

2. Central bank actions have changed the demand structure for gold. Central banks of various countries continue to systematically increase their gold holdings. The core purpose is not short-term risk hedging, but diversification of foreign exchange reserves and reducing structural dependence on the U.S. dollar system.

SHINDEV's point of view: Gold is being redefined as a "non-sovereign credit asset", and its pricing logic is no longer completely constrained by the traditional interest rate model.

2. The independence of the Federal Reserve is under attack, and gold’s “non-yield disadvantage” is disappearing

The Trump administration's public pressure on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has even triggered judicial uncertainty, causing the market to begin to reassess:

·The credibility of the Fed’s policy independence;

·Whether monetary policy will more clearly serve fiscal and political goals in the future.

·In this context: the anchor point of real interest rates has been weakened, the traditional disadvantage of "gold does not earn interest" has been significantly reduced, and the market is more concerned about the stability of currency and credit itself. This is why gold continues to strengthen even if interest rates are not cut or even kept unchanged.

3. The return of ETFs and retail investors has amplified price elasticity

It is worth noting that this round of gains is not driven solely by central banks, as physically backed gold ETF holdings have increased by about 20% year-on-year. The silver market has shown obvious retail diversification, dynamic quantification, and spot tension. Silver broke through $100 and then quickly rose to close to $120, showing that it has entered a highly elastic, highly sentiment-driven stage.

SHINDEV reminds: The rise of silver and platinum group metals has both "monetary attributes + industrial attributes + speculative attributes", and their volatility is significantly higher than gold.

4. Institutional target price revisions essentially reflect “the instability of the pricing system.”

Société Générale’s $6,000/oz target, and Morgan Stanley’s $5,700 bull case, are not simple price predictions, but imply the following assumptions:

·Uncertainty in the global monetary system will continue;

·USD credit premiums are reassessed;

·Investors are willing to pay a higher risk premium for “certain assets”.

In other words, gold is rising not because the world is getting better, but because uncertainty is getting harder to price.

5. SHINDEV’s core judgment: The trend is not over, but risks are accumulating

From the perspective of institutional configuration, SHINDEV’s judgment is:

1. The mid- to long-term trend still holds: Gold has entered a new valuation range, and its role is closer to "a stabilizer in the global monetary system."

2. Be wary of sentiment and leverage risks in the short term: There are obvious signs of overheating in silver and other commodities. After a rapid rise, any policy relaxation or geopolitical cooling may trigger a sharp retracement.

3. There will be obvious differentiation within precious metals: gold: biased towards "allocation-oriented, long-term logic", silver/platinum/palladium: biased towards "transaction-oriented, high-volatility logic".

SHINDEV’s conclusion:

Gold's breakthrough of $5,100 is not the end of the market, but more like a signal: global investors are voting with price and expressing uneasiness with the existing monetary and political order. In such an environment, the real challenge is not "where can gold rise?" but - how to re-establish the stability of asset allocation in a world where uncertainty has become the norm.