Research Insight
According to SHINDEV’s latest in-depth research, upstream prices in the photovoltaic (PV) supply chain have recently shown signs of stabilization and mild recovery. Prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers have rebounded modestly, with N-type polysilicon and N-type wafers outperforming the broader market.
Industry participants believe that faster-than-expected capacity transitions are accelerating the phase-out of legacy P-type capacity, pushing the PV industry into a new phase of structural and technological transformation.
Data released by the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicate that over the past week:
N-type polysilicon traded between RMB 70,000–73,000 per tonne, with an average price of RMB 70,900/tonne, up 1.87% week-on-week;
Monocrystalline dense material averaged RMB 58,600/tonne, up 0.17%;
N-type granular silicon averaged RMB 60,000/tonne, up 1.69%.
Overall, N-type polysilicon prices showed a stronger rebound compared with P-type products.
A similar trend was observed in the wafer segment. According to data released on January 25, the average transaction price of N-type monocrystalline wafers rose to RMB 2.02 per piece, up approximately 1% week-on-week. M10 wafers recorded slight gains, while G12 wafer prices remained largely flat.
SHINDEV’s Managing Director told China Securities Journal that the rapid penetration of N-type cells has significantly increased downstream demand for high-quality polysilicon and wafers, leading to earlier price recovery for N-type products.
The Silicon Industry Branch noted that N-type wafer capacity now accounts for 60%–80% of total capacity, with technology iteration progressing faster than previously expected.
According to Wang Jian, Director of the New Energy Division at TrendForce, N-type products continue to gain market share due to advantages such as higher efficiency, lower degradation, higher bifaciality, and superior temperature coefficients. In December 2023, N-type modules accounted for nearly 70% of total market tenders.
Against the backdrop of rapid demand shifts, PV manufacturers are accelerating investments in N-type technologies.
In December 2023, Shuangliang Eco-Energy announced plans to raise up to RMB 2.56 billion to invest in 38GW of large-size monocrystalline ingot pulling projects, aiming to capture growth opportunities driven by N-type cell expansion and reduce costs through economies of scale.
Meanwhile, Mubang Hi-Tech disclosed plans to invest approximately RMB 7 billion in Anhui Province to build 10GW of N-type high-efficiency cell capacity and 10GW of wafer capacity.
Industry observers note that severe oversupply in P-type capacity has prompted PV companies to accelerate the transition toward N-type technologies in preparation for the next industry cycle.
According to InfoLink data as of December 2023:
Approximately 50.6GW of P-type cell capacity has been shut down or suspended;
Around 197GW of P-type capacity is expected to be phased out;
About 17% of P-type capacity is planned for conversion to N-type TOPCon production.
InfoLink forecasts that N-type TOPCon penetration could rise to around 60% in 2024, while P-type cell market share is expected to decline to single-digit levels by 2025.
Despite the strong outlook, N-type TOPCon technology requires substantial capital investment in R&D, equipment, and process optimization. As a result, some companies are facing financing constraints.
InfoLink data show that as of December 2023, approximately 120GW of N-type TOPCon expansion projects have been postponed.
Industry analysts believe that while short-term pressure and industry differentiation may persist, continuous technological improvements and cost reductions will ultimately reinforce N-type technology as the key driver of the PV industry’s next growth cycle.
