External Industry Research Release | SHINDEV Research Team
The intelligent driving market is entering a clear “democratization inflection point.” SHINDEV observes that BYD recently announced the “God’s Eye” intelligent driving system will be deployed across 21 models—from the premium Yangwang U8 to the Seagull smart-driving edition—making highway NOA (Navigation on Autopilot / assisted navigation) standard on these vehicles, with most models offering “more features at the same price.” BYD’s newly launched Qin DM-i smart-driving edition goes further: with a subsidized starting price of RMB 69,800, it brings navigation-assisted driving and automated parking to the sub-RMB 100,000 segment—reshaping competition with traditional ICE vehicles and high-priced ADAS offerings.
In SHINDEV’s view, ADAS democratization is not merely a marketing tactic. It reflects structural change driven by continuous hardware cost declines and rapid iteration in perception solutions. Among these, 4D millimeter-wave radar—offering “near-LiDAR-critical perception gains” at a markedly lower cost curve—has emerged as a core enabler of scalable L2+ deployment in mass-market vehicles. By integrating 4D mmWave radar with camera-based vision, OEMs can reduce reliance on high-cost LiDAR while maintaining reliability for highway NOA and automated parking—one of the key technical pathways that makes “advanced functions under RMB 100,000” commercially feasible.
Historically, advanced ADAS functions have been tied to premium vehicles because:
higher-level functions typically require expensive sensors and high compute platforms;
option packages and “spec premiums” raise the adoption threshold for mainstream buyers.
However, the demand structure is clear: a large portion of vehicle purchases sits below RMB 200,000. For ADAS to become a baseline safety feature—like seatbelts and airbags—the industry must achieve “cost-down without capability-down,” using scalable and cost-controllable perception and compute architectures to deliver reliable coverage in high-frequency scenarios.
SHINDEV believes the industry is shifting from a “spec arms race” to a “commercial viability race.” Winners will be those who best balance performance, cost, and reliability—and in doing so, gain the next wave of market share and supply-chain pricing power.
Within the cost structure of mainstream ADAS stacks, perception is often the most decisive battlefield for OEMs to reduce costs while preserving capability. 4D millimeter-wave radar stands out because it delivers step-change capability improvements over traditional radar:
(1) Capability uplift: from ranging to “imaging-like understanding”
By adding elevation information and producing denser point-cloud outputs, 4D mmWave radar significantly improves detection of:
stationary objects,
low-profile obstacles,
targets under adverse weather and low-light conditions,
providing stronger perception redundancy for highway NOA, parking, and AEB.
(2) Cost curve: “advanced perception at mass-market cost”
Compared with LiDAR, 4D mmWave radar enjoys a structurally lower cost profile, making it far more suitable for large-scale deployment in the RMB 100,000–150,000 segment.
(3) System approach: 4D mmWave + vision becomes a scalable mainstream template
Pure-vision approaches rely heavily on compute and algorithmic sophistication to offset sensor limitations. In contrast, radar-camera fusion offers a more balanced point across cost, all-weather robustness, and scenario coverage—particularly suitable for OEMs aiming at rapid scale.
SHINDEV believes the value of 4D mmWave radar is not only that it is cheaper, but that it better fits the commercial model of mass adoption:
Strong cost advantage enables L2+ functions to scale in RMB 100,000-class vehicles.
All-weather robustness improves reliability under rain, snow, fog, glare, and low visibility.
Bridges pure-vision gaps by delivering stronger robustness at lower hardware cost and less dependence on extreme compute/data loops.
Elastic product positioning supports high-frequency ADAS features today (AEB/ACC/parking) while remaining upgradable via architecture and algorithms—reducing OEM platform R&D marginal costs.
With ADAS moving down-market and trending toward “standardization,” the growth curve for 4D mmWave radar is becoming steeper:
Demand: sub-RMB 150,000 models accelerate L2+ adoption, moving 4D radar from “optional” toward “standard candidate.”
Supply: a maturing domestic supply chain, better fusion algorithms, and stronger automotive-grade mass production further push costs down.
Structure: more OEMs adopt “mmWave + camera” architectures to reduce single-path dependence on LiDAR.
Simplified value chain
Upstream (high R&D intensity): RF chips, MIMO antenna arrays, signal processing & point-cloud algorithms (moat)
Midstream (integration & delivery): HW/SW coupling, automotive reliability, mass production & cost control (scaling capability)
Downstream (OEM deployment): platform adaptation, feature definition, and data loops (commercialization speed)
SHINDEV suggests focusing on three types of opportunities:
Platform players with chip–algorithm–system full-stack capability and automotive-grade mass production;
Algorithm specialists in cognitive radar, point-cloud interpretation, and fusion perception;
Mass-production integrators already qualified in top OEM supply chains with stable delivery and cost discipline.
As vehicles move into “multi-radar, multi-sensor fusion” platformization, competition shifts from selling components to delivering systems.
Future leaders will require:
System engineering capability to integrate chip/antenna/algorithms into automotive-grade systems and align with vehicle E/E architectures.
Data-driven continuous evolution through real-world closed-loop iteration.
Cross-domain innovation for cockpit-driving integration and V2X / vehicle-road collaboration scenarios.
Despite strong momentum, the market faces structural risks:
Technology path uncertainty: pure-vision and LiDAR-heavy approaches can squeeze mid-sensor value; evolving fusion architectures may reallocate value.
OEM configuration volatility: cost pressure may push “good-enough” strategies, using algorithm optimization and simplified configurations over sensor upgrades.
Supply-chain & certification cycles: long automotive qualification cycles and high switching costs amplify supply shocks—especially for startups.
Intelligent driving is transitioning from “early adopter tech” to “mass-market standard.” With controllable costs, all-weather stability, and fusion-friendly strengths, 4D millimeter-wave radar has become one of the most representative enablers in this democratization phase. BYD’s rapid down-market push underscores the new competitive logic: not expensive hardware stacking, but scalable architectures that deliver reliable experiences at “cost-down without capability-down.”
SHINDEV believes the rise of 4D mmWave radar is only the beginning. As cockpit-driving integration and V2X collaboration expand, perception boundaries will continue to be reshaped. Companies that can connect the full chain—core components, fusion algorithms, automotive-grade mass production, and data loops—will be best positioned to survive the next reshuffle.
SHINDEV (鑫鼎晟) is a financing specialist in China’s innovation and technology sector. With “technology value discovery + industry–capital integration enablement” at its core, SHINDEV provides full-cycle capital solutions for AI, new-quality productive forces, advanced manufacturing, and broader innovation industries. Over the past nine years, SHINDEV has served 700+ technology companies, supported 30+ successful IPOs, built deep value networks with leading global investors, and completed equity financing exceeding RMB 120 billion.
